Demam Berdarah Dengue (DBD) masih menjadi masalah kesehatan masyarakat di Kota Bogor dengan jumlah kasus yang berfluktuasi setiap tahun. Faktor iklim seperti suhu, kelembapan, curah hujan, serta Angka Bebas Jentik (ABJ) diduga berperan dalam memengaruhi kejadian DBD. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis hubungan faktor iklim dan ABJ dengan kejadian DBD serta memproyeksikan jumlah kasus DBD di Kota Bogor. Penelitian menggunakan desain studi ekologi dengan unit analisis bulanan menggunakan data Januari 2022–Desember 2025. Data sekunder agregat jumlah kasus DBD dan ABJ Kota Bogor didapatkan dari Dinas Kesehatan Kota Bogor, sementara data faktor iklim (suhu, kelembapan, curah hujan) didapatkan dari Stasiun Klimatologi Jawa Barat BMKG. Analisis bivariat dilakukan menggunakan korelasi Rank Spearman dengan lag 0–3 bulan sementara analisis multivariat menggunakan metode Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) dan regresi linear ganda. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa ABJ memiliki hubungan negatif yang signifikan dengan kejadian DBD (p=0,001; r=-0,532), sedangkan suhu, kelembapan, dan curah hujan menunjukkan hubungan signifikan pada periode dan lag tertentu. Hasil regresi linear ganda menunjukkan bahwa ABJ, suhu lag 3 bulan, dan curah hujan lag 3 bulan merupakan prediktor kejadian DBD dengan nilai R² sebesar 43,3%. Model yang diperoleh adalah Y = 3173,588 − 49,582 (ABJ) + 60,887 (Suhu lag 3) + 0,156 (Curah Hujan lag 3) + e. Hasil proyeksi ARIMA menunjukkan bahwa kejadian DBD tahun 2026–2029 diperkirakan tetap mengalami fluktuasi dengan pola musiman yang berulang dan nilai MAPE sebesar 29%, yang menunjukkan kemampuan prediksi model cukup baik. Hasil penelitian ini dapat menjadi dasar dalam pengembangan sistem kewaspadaan dini dan perencanaan program pengendalian DBD berbasis faktor iklim dan pengendalian vektor.

Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) remains a significant public health problem in Bogor City, with the number of cases fluctuating annually. Climate factors including temperature, humidity, and rainfall, as well as the Larvae-Free Index (LFI) are suspected to influence the occurrence of DHF. This study aimed to analyze the relationship between climate factors and the LFI with DHF incidence and to project the number of DHF cases in Bogor City. An ecological study design was employed using monthly data from January 2022 to December 2025. Secondary aggregated data on DHF cases and the LFI were obtained from the Bogor City Health Office, while climate data (temperature, humidity, and rainfall) were obtained from the West Java Climatology Station of the Indonesian Meteorological, Climatological, and Geophysical Agency (BMKG). Bivariate analysis was conducted using Spearman’s rank correlation with lags of 0–3 months, while multivariate analysis was performed using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method and multiple linear regression. The results showed that the LFI was significantly and negatively associated with DHF incidence (p=0.001; r=-0.532), whereas temperature, humidity, and rainfall demonstrated significant associations at specific periods and lag times. Multiple linear regression analysis identified the LFI, temperature at a 3-month lag, and rainfall at a 3-month lag as predictors of DHF incidence, with an R² value of 43.3%. The resulting model was: Y = 3173.588 − 49.582(LFI) + 60.887(Temperature lag 3) + 0.156(Rainfall lag 3) + e. ARIMA projections indicated that DHF incidence during 2026–2029 is expected to continue fluctuating with a recurring seasonal pattern. The model yielded a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 29%, indicating an acceptable forecasting performance. These findings may serve as a basis for developing climate-based early warning systems and supporting the planning of DHF prevention and vector control programs.