Sepsis neonatal merupakan salah satu penyebab morbiditas dan mortalitas tersering pada neonatus. Ketepatan pemberian antibiotik empirik memegang peranan penting dalam keberhasilan terapi. Kegagalan terapi antibiotik yang biasanya dikaitkan dengan terapi empirik, terjadi jika tujuan pemberian antibiotik untuk mengatasi infeksi tidak tercapai, yang ditandai dengan menetapnya atau bahkan memburuknya manifestasi klinis infeksi pada pasien, namun definisi pasti belum ditetapkan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengidentifikasi dan mengembangkan model prediksi dari faktor-faktor yang berhubungan dengan kegagalan terapi antibiotik empirik lini I pada pasien sepsis neonatal di RSUP dr. Soeradji Tirtonegoro.  Penelitian dilakukan dengan desain kohort retrospektif pada 237 pasien dengan sepsis neonatal. Analisis multivariat dengan regressi poisson dilakukan untuk mendapatkan model akhir dari faktor-faktor yang berhubungan. Selanjutnya dilakukan konversi nilai koefisien β menjadi nilai skor untuk membentuk model prediksi. Model akhir yang didapat dilakukan analisis diskriminasi dengan menilai area under curve (AUC) pada kurva receiver operating characteristics (ROC) dan titik potong yang optimal akan ditentukan berdasarkan total skor. Hasil penelitian diperoleh proporsi kegagalan terapi antibiotik empirik lini I sebesar 46,41%. Faktor yang berhubungan dengan kegagalan terapi antibiotik empirik lini I adalah berat lahir < 2500 gram (aRR 1,46, p-value 0,028, IK95% 1,04-2,05), tidak mendapat ASI (aRR 1,66, p-value <0,005, IK95% 1,28-2,14), rujukan (aRR 1,25, p-value 0,090, IK95% 0,96-1,63), leukosit yang tidak normal (aRR 1,31, p-value 0,080, IK95% 0,96-1,79), trombosit yang tidak normal (aRR 1,66, p-value <0,005, IK95% 1,30-2,12) dan netrofil yang tidak normal (aRR 1,47, p-value 0,003, IK95% 1,14-1,89). Model prediksi ini mempunyai nilai AUC 0,7661 (IK95% 0,70890 – 0,82013). Ditetapkan titik potong sebesar ≥ 29 dengan nilai sensitifitas 80,00% dan spesifisitas 62,20%. Kesimpulan penelitian ini adalah model prediksi yang diperoleh cukup baik untuk memprediksi kegagalan terapi antibiotik empirik lini I. Perlu dilakukan penelitian lebih lanjut dengan desain penelitian yang lebih baik menggunakan prediktor yang lebih spesifik.

Neonatal sepsis is one of the most common causes of morbidity and mortality in neonates. Accuracy in administering antibiotics empirically plays an important role in the success of therapy. Failure of antibiotic therapy, which is usually associated with empiric therapy, occurs if the goal of administering antibiotics to treat infection is not achieved, which is characterized by persistence or even worsening of the clinical infection manifested in the patient, but a definite definition has not been established. This study aims to identify and develop a predictive model of factors associated with failure of first line empiric antibiotic therapy in neonatal sepsis patients at RSUP dr. Soeradji Tirtonegoro.  The study was conducted with a retrospective cohort design on 237 patients with neonatal sepsis. Multivariate analysis with Poisson regression was carried out to obtain a final model of related factors. Next, the β coefficient value is converted into a score value to form a predictive model. The final model obtained by discrimination analysis is carried out by assessing the area under curve (AUC) on the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the optimal cut point will be determined based on the total score. The results of the study showed that the proportion of failure of first line empirical antibiotic therapy was 46.41%. Factors associated with failure of first line empiric antibiotic therapy were birth weight < 2500 grams (aRR 1.46, p-value 0.028, 95%CI 1.04-2.05), not receiving breast milk (aRR 1.66, p -value <0.005, 95%CI 1.28-2.14), outborn (aRR 1.25, p-value 0.090, 95%CI 0.96-1.63), abnormal leucocite (aRR 1.31, p-value 0.080, CI95% 0.96-1.79), abnormal platelet values (aRR 1.66, p-value <0.005, 95%CI 1.30-2.12) and abnormal neutrophils (aRR 1.47, p-value 0.003, 95%CI 1.14-1.89). The predictive model has an AUC value of 0.7661 (95%CI 0,70890 – 0,82013). The cut point was set at ≥ 29 with a sensitivity value of 80.00% and specificity of 62.20%. The conclusion of this study is that the predictive model obtained is good enough to predict failure of first line empirical antibiotic therapy. Further research needs to be carried out with a better research design using more specific predictors.

Pendahuluan : Serologi positif IgG mengindikasikan infeksi kronis dari Toxoplasma gondii. Perilaku seksual dianggap sebagai faktor risiko infeksi Toxoplasma gondii, karena adanya temuan keberadaan parasit ini pada cairan semen dan ejakulasi. Hal ini menjadi landasan dalam menjelaskan hubungan infeksi T. gondii dengan hubungan seks oral. Selain itu, infeksi parasit ini berhubungan dengan konsumsi bahan pangan asal hewan, khususnya daging ternak ruminansia yang dimasak dengan tidak matang. Tujuan Penelitian : Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui faktor risiko dan merancang model prediksi serologi positif IgG Toxoplasma gondii pada pasien HIV/AIDS yang menjalani terapi ARV di wilayah Jakarta, Bogor, Depok, Bekasi yang mendapatkan pendampingan dari yayasan pendamping pasien HIV/AIDS. Metode Penelitian : Desain studi penelitian menggunakan desain potong lintang. Subyek Penelitian adalah 197 pasien HIV. Status serologi IgG positif Toxoplasma gondii diukur menggunakan pemeriksaan ELISA. Hubungan seks oral, hubungan seks anal, konsumsi bahan pangan asal hewan yang dimasak tidak matang (daging ternak ruminansia, daging unggas, ikan dan udang, seafood), konsumsi sayuran mentah, pemeriksaan Toxoplasma gondii pada kucing peliharaan, keberadaan feses kucing di sekitar rumah, kebiasaan tidak mencuci tangan setelah kontak dengan tanah, dan kepemilikan tato merupakan perilaku dan kondisi lingkungan yang diduga menjadi faktor risiko serologi positif IgG Toxoplasma gondii. Hasil Penelitian: Prevalensi serologi positif IgG Toxoplasma gondii pada pasien HIV yang menjalani terapi ARV di wilayah Jakarta, Bogor, Depok, dan Bekasi yang mendapatkan pendampingan dari 4 yayasan pendamping pasien HIV/AIDS adalah 65,48%. Hubungan seks oral (aPR:1,56; β:0,446; 95%CI:1,05-2,31;p<0,026) dan konsumsi daging ternak ruminansia bakar (aPR:4,89; β:1,585; 95%CI:2,51-9,50;p<0,001) merupakan faktor risiko serologi positif IgG Toxoplasma gondii. Analisis permodelan menghasilkan model Prediksi Serologi IgG Toxoplasma gondii pada pasien HIV yang menjalani terapi ARV dan mendapatkan pendampingan dari 4 yayasan pendamping pasien HIV di wilayah Jakarta, Bogor, Depok, dan Bekasi. Status serologi tersebut dapat diukur menggunakan pengamatan hubungan seks oral dan konsumsi daging ruminansia bakar. Model ini memiliki tingkat akurasi, sensitivitas, dan spesifisitas model prediksi ini mencapai 87,31%, 97,67%, dan 67,65%. Kesimpulan : Hubungan seks oral dan konsumsi daging ruminansia bakar merupakan faktor risiko serologi positif IgG Toxoplasma gondii pada pasien HIV/AIDS. Proses penapisan (screening) untuk memperkirakan status serologi IgG Toxoplasma gondii, dapat dilakukan dengan mengukur hubungan seks oral dan konsumsi daging ruminansia bakar, bersamaan dengan pemeriksaan HIV. Rujukan pemeriksaan serologi Toxoplasma gondii direkomendasikan untuk diberikan kepada pasien HIV/AIDS yang berhubungan seks oral dan mengonsumsi daging ruminansia bakar. Keywords : Toxoplasma gondii; hiv; sexual behaviour; risk factor; prediction model

Introduction: IgG-positive serology indicates Toxoplasma gondii chronic infection. Sexual behaviour is considered a risk factor for Toxoplasma gondii infection, due to the presence of this parasite in semen and ejaculate fluids. This finding explains the relationship between T. gondii infection and oral sex. Several studies stated that parasitic infection is related to the consumption of food of animal origin, especially ruminant livestock meat that is undercooked. Research Objectives: This study aims to determine risk factors and design a positive Serology Prediction Model for IgG Toxoplasma gondii in HIV/AIDS patients undergoing ARV therapy in the Jakarta, Bogor, Depok, Bekasi areas who receive assistance from HIV/AIDS foundations. Research Method: The design of this study uses a cross-section design. The research subjects were 197 HIV patients. The Serological Status of IgG positive for Toxoplasma gondii was measured using an ELISA methods. Oral sex, anal sex, consumption of food from undercooked animals (ruminant meat, poultry, fish and shrimp, seafood), consumption of raw vegetables, health monitoring in pet cats, the presence of cat faces around the house, the habit of not washing hands after contact with the ground, and the possession of tattoos are behaviours and environmental conditions that are suspected to be risk factors for positive serology IgG Toxoplasma gondii. Results: The prevalence of IgG Toxoplasma gondii positive serology in HIV patients undergoing ARV therapy in the Jakarta, Bogor, Depok, and Bekasi areas who received assistance from 4 HIV/AIDS patient companion foundations was 65.48%. Oral sex (aPR: 1.56; β: 0.446; 95%CI: 1.05-2.31; p<0.026) and consumption of grilled ruminant livestock (aPR: 4.89; β: 1.585; 95%CI: 2.51-9.50; p<0.001) is a positive serological risk factor for IgG Toxoplasma gondii. The modelling analysis produced a Serological Prediction model of IgG Toxoplasma gondii in HIV patients undergoing ARV therapy and received assistance from 4 HIV patient assistance foundations in the Jakarta, Bogor, Depok, and Bekasi areas. The serologic status can be measured using observation of oral sex and consumption of grilled ruminant meat. This model has the level of accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of this prediction model reaching 87.31%, 97.67%, and 67.65%. Conclusion: Oral sex and consumption of grilled ruminant meat are risk factors for IgG Toxoplasma gondii positive serology in HIV/AIDS patients. The screening process to estimate the serological status of IgG Toxoplasma gondii can be done by measuring oral sex and consumption of grilled ruminant meat, along with HIV screening. Toxoplasma gondii serology test is recommended to be given to HIV/AIDS patients who have oral sex and consume grilled ruminant meat. Keywords : Toxoplasma gondii; HIV; sexual behaviour; risk factor; prediction model

Pendahuluan. Artritis reumatoid (AR) adalah peradangan kronik autoimun yang terutama melibatkan persendian secara bilateral dan simetris. Walaupun memiliki prevalensi yang rendah namun jika tidak diterapi secara adekuat maka akan menimbulkan masalah persendian yang bersifat permanen, kecacatan dan gangguan fungsi sendi sehingga menimbulkan dampak secara ekonomi dan sosial pada individu yang mengalaminya. Penyakit AR ini tidak dapat disembuhkan namun penyakit ini harus tetap ditatalaksana untuk mencegah progresifitas dari penyakit itu sendiri dan saat ini  prediksi kegagalan atau keberhasilan terapi MTX belum pernah  dilakukan di Indonesia terutama pengembangan terhadap suatu sistem skoring yang aplikatif, hal ini menjadi  landasan  untuk melakukan analisis faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi kegagalan pengobatan metotreksat pada pasien AR dalam hal ini dalam skala rumah sakit yang menyesuaikan dengan kondisi di Indonesia dan melakukan pengembangan sistem skoring prediktor terhadap kegagalan monoterapi metotreksat. Metode. Penelitian menggunakan desain studi kohort retrospektif yang menggunakan data rekam medis elektronik (RME) pasien poli reumatologi penyakit dalam RSCM pada kurun waktu Oktober 2020 - September 2023. Dilakukan analisis deskriptif dan bivariat dengan menggunakan analisis chi-square yang dilanjutkan dengan analisis multivariat dengan analisis model Generalized Linear Model (GLM) dengan family Poisson untuk mendapatkan nilai koefisien, RR dengan interval kepercayaan 95% dari variabel independen terhadap kegagalan terapi monoterapi metotreksat yang dilanjutkan proses eliminasi variabel melalui metode backward. Hasil. Penelitian ini mendapatkan jumlah sampel sebanyak 215 subyek setelah melalui seleksi kriteria inklusi dan eksklusi, dan didapatkan hasil bahwa jumlah sendi nyeri ≥ 6 memiliki RR 1,52 (CI 95% 1,09-2,16), obesitas memiliki RR 1,41 (CI 95% 1,04-1,24), faktor peradangan LED memiliki RR 2,21 (CI 95%1,07-4,10) dan derajat aktifitas penyakit yang tinggi dengan RR 1,36 (CI 95% 1,03-1,79) adalah variabel yang memengaruhi kegagalan monoterapi metotreksat. Pada pembentukan skoring didapatkan skoring TOLD memiliki nilai kalibrasi dari Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit sebesar 0,29 dan nilai diskriminasi area under curve (AUC) pada kurva receiver operating characteristics (ROC) sebesar 0,71 (CI 95% 0,65-0,78; p-value 0,03). Kesimpulan. Jumlah sendi nyeri ≥ 6, obesitas, faktor peradangan LED dan derajat aktifitas penyakit yang tinggi adalah variabel yang memengaruhi kegagalan monoterapi metotreksat dan pembentukan skoring prediksi TOLD memiliki nilai diskriminasi dan kalibrasi yang cukup baik

Introduction. Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a chronic autoimmune inflammation that mainly involves the joints bilaterally and symmetrically. Even though it has a low prevalence, if it is not treated adequately, it will cause permanent joint problems, disability and impaired joint function, causing economic and social impacts on the individuals who experience it. RA disease cannot be cured but this disease must still be managed to prevent progression of the disease itself and currently predictions of failure or success of MTX therapy have never been carried out in Indonesia, especially the development of an applicable scoring system, this is the basis for conducting analysis of factors that influence methotrexate treatment failure in RA patients, in this case on a hospital scale that adapts to conditions in Indonesia and develops a predictor scoring system for failure of methotrexate monotherapy. Methods. The study used a retrospective cohort study design using electronic medical record (RME) data from patients in the RSCM internal medicine rheumatology clinic in the period October 2020 - September 2023. Descriptive and bivariate analysis was carried out using chi-square analysis followed by multivariate analysis using Generalized model analysis. Linear Model (GLM) with the Poisson family to obtain coefficient values, RR with a 95% confidence interval of the independent variable for failure of methotrexate monotherapy therapy, followed by a variable elimination process using the backward method. Results. This study obtained a sample size of 215 subjects after going through selection criteria for inclusion and exclusion, and the results showed that the number of painful joints ≥ 6 had an RR of 1.52 (CI 95% 1.09-2.16), obesity had an RR of 1.41 (CI 95% 1.04-1.24), inflammatory factor ESR had RR 2.21 (CI 95% 1.07-4.10) and high degree of disease activity with RR 1.36 (CI 95% 1.03 -1.79) are variables that influences the failure of methotrexate monotherapy. In forming the scoring, it was found that TOLD scoring had a calibration value from the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit of 0.29 and an area under curve (AUC) discrimination value on the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve of 0.71 (CI 95% 0.65-0 .78; p-value 0.03). Conclusion. The number of painful joints ≥ 6, obesity, ESR inflammatory factors and a high degree of disease activity are variables that influence the failure of methotrexate monotherapy and the formation of TOLD prediction scoring has quite good discrimination and calibration values.

Heart failure is a clinical syndrome that occurs when the heart fails to meet the body’s demand for oxygen and nutrients. The prevalence and mortality rate of heart failure in Indonesia are relatively high compared to other Southeast Asian countries. The occurrence of heart failure in young adults increases the risk of premature death, recurrent rehospitalization, reduced quality of life, and a greater burden on the healthcare system. Several factors such as obesity, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), hypertension, smoking, dyslipidemia, family history of premature coronary artery disease (PCAD), and sex have been identified as being associated with heart failure. Developing a predictive model to identify the most influential risk factors for heart failure in young adults is crucial for preventive strategies and early interventions. This study employed a fixed retrospective cohort design involving patients aged 18–54 years who visited the cardiology outpatient clinic or were hospitalized at four tertiary hospitals in Indonesia (National Cardiovascular Center Harapan Kita, Jakarta; Hasan Sadikin Hospital, Bandung; Sebelas Maret University Hospital, Solo; and Adam Malik Hospital, Medan) in 2021. Patients without an initial diagnosis of heart failure were included, and their risk factors were recorded according to the study variables. The patients were followed monthly from 2021 until the end of observation in 2024 to determine whether they developed heart failure. Descriptive, bivariate, and multivariable analyses were conducted using the Poisson Generalized Linear Model (GLM) to estimate coefficients, incidence rate ratios (IRR) with 95% confidence intervals, and to construct the most accurate predictive model. Based on the model, a scoring system and probability value for the occurrence of heart failure were developed. A total of 321 participants met the inclusion and exclusion criteria, with a median age of 51 years (P25–P75: 46–52 years). After four years of observation, the cumulative probability of developing heart failure was 0.713 (95% CI: 0.661–0.760). The analysis identified three significant predictors for heart failure in young adults: obesity (IRR 1.87; 95% CI 1.31–2.68), dyslipidemia (IRR 2.58; 95% CI 1.87–3.56), and T2DM (IRR 2.79; 95% CI 2.01–3.87). The IDD Score (Body Mass Index–Dyslipidemia–Diabetes) was developed as a predictive scoring system for heart failure in young adults, with a total score of 13 corresponding to a 76.8% probability. Obesity, dyslipidemia, and T2DM were found to be significant risk factors for heart failure in young adults. The proposed IDD Score demonstrated good sensitivity and specificity in predicting the occurrence of heart failure within this population.