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Arsitawati Pudji Rahardjo; Promotor: Amal C. Sjaaf; Ko-promotor: Purnawan Junadi; Ketua sidang: Sudijanto Kamso; Penguji: Santoso Cornain, I Gede Putu Surya, Sudarti Kresno, Mardiati Nadjib, Adang Bachtiar
D-203
Depok : FKM-UI, 2007
S3 - Disertasi   Pusat Informasi Kesehatan Masyarakat
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Ade Heryana; Promotor: Wiku Bakti Bawono Adisasmito; Kopromotor: Dumilah Ayuningtyas; Penguji: Ascobat Gani, Fatma Lestari, Meiwita Paulina Budiharsana, Cri Sajjana Prajna Wekadigunawan, Turro Selrits Wongkaren, Raditya Jati
Abstrak:
Kejadian pandemi virus corona SARS-CoV-2 di dunia meningkatkan kesadaran bahwa pengendalian wabah penyakit di suatu daerah sangat berkaitan dengan karakteristik wilayah epidemik. Determinan sosial kesehatan dapat dijadikan sebagai kerangka kerja untuk memprediksi penyebaran penyakit dan mengusulkan upaya pengendalian wabah pada tingkat populasi berdasarkan penilaian risiko. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengembangkan model pengendalian wabah penyakit berbasis risiko wilayah. Metodologi: Studi kasus dilakukan terhadap pandemi COVID-19 saat gelombang Delta tahun 2021 di Indonesia. Untuk menjawab tujuan penelitian, dilakukan studi faktor risiko terhadap 128 kabupaten/kota di Jawa-Bali dengan analisis regresi linier. Penilaian risiko diukur dengan pemodelan kompartemen penyakit menular SEIRD (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered, Dead). Usulan upaya mitigasi risiko, respon, kesiapsiagaan dan rehabilitasi dibangun berdasarkan hasil penilaian risiko. Seluruh analisis dikontrol berdasarkan tahapan pandemi yang terdiri dari pra, naik, turun, dan pasca. Hasil: terdapat 31 faktor determinan sosial kesehatan yang secara signifikan berpengaruh terhadap indikator wabah yakni kerentanan, penularan, kesembuhan, dan kematian. Hasil simulasi model diperoleh 17 faktor determinan sosial yang memiliki risiko signifikan berdasarkan vulnerability, capacity, exposure, dan hazard. Upaya pengendalian pandemi yang diusulkan ternyata memiliki perbedaan berdasarkan tahapan pandemi dan karakteristik wilayah kabupaten/kota. Kesimpulan: penelitian ini telah menghasilkan model pengendalian wabah berbasis risiko wilayah yang dapat diterapkan untuk mengatasi masalah krisis kesehatan lainnya pada tingkat lokal, regional, hingga global

The COVID-19 pandemic has raised awareness that the control of disease outbreaks in a region is closely linked to the characteristics of the epidemic region. Social determinants of health can be used as a framework to predict the spread of disease and propose outbreak control efforts at the population level based on risk assessment. This study aims to develop a risk region-based disease outbreak control model. Methodology: A case study was conducted on the COVID-19 pandemic during the Delta wave in 2021 in Indonesia. To answer the research objectives, a risk factor study was conducted on 128 regencies/cities in Java-Bali using linear regression analysis. Risk assessment was measured using the SEIRD (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered, Dead) infectious disease compartment modeling. Proposed risk mitigation, response, preparedness, and rehabilitation efforts were built based on the results of risk assessment. All analyzes were controlled based on the stages of the pandemic, consisting of pre, increase, declining, and post. Results: There were 31 social determinants of health factors that significantly affected outbreak indicators, namely vulnerability, transmission, recovery, and death. The results of the model simulation showed 17 social determinants of risk based on vulnerability, capacity, exposure, and hazard. The proposed pandemic control efforts actually differ based on the stages of the pandemic and the characteristics of the regencies/cities. Conclusion: This study has resulted in a risk region-based disease outbreak control model that can be applied to address other health crisis problems at the local, regional, and global levels
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D-503
Depok : FKM-UI, 2024
S3 - Disertasi   Pusat Informasi Kesehatan Masyarakat
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Eny Kusmiran; Promotor: Hadi Pratomo; Kopromotor: Agustin Kusumayati; Penguji: Budi Anna Keliat; Anggota: Sabarinah B Prasetyo, Dumilah Ayuningtyas, Wachyu Sulistiadi, Asep Supena, Fitri Haryanti
D-353
Depok : FKM-UI, 2016
S3 - Disertasi   Pusat Informasi Kesehatan Masyarakat
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Putri Citra Cinta Asyura Nasution; Promotor: Dumilah Ayuningtyas; Kopromotor: Adang Bachtiar, Besral; Penguji: Wachyu Sulistiadi, Sutoto, Emma Rachmawati, Viera Wardhani
Abstrak:

Keselamatan pasien merupakan kewajiban rumah sakit dan bagian integral dari akreditasi sejak 2008. Namun, berbagai permasalahan masih sering ditemukan, sehingga keberlanjutan perbaikan menjadi tantangan. Penelitian ini bertujuan merumuskan model konseptual strategi peningkatan keselamatan pasien. Penelitian menggunakan pendekatan mixed method dengan desain convergent parallel. Data kuantitatif berasal dari Riset Fasilitas Kesehatan 2019 (523 rumah sakit) dan data akreditasi (917 rumah sakit), dianalisis menggunakan uji chi-square, regresi logistik, dan analisis jalur. Data kualitatif dikumpulkan melalui wawancara mendalam dan telaah dokumen dari enam rumah sakit, dinas kesehatan provinsi, dan Perhimpunan Rumah Sakit Seluruh Indonesia (PERSI) wilayah di Sumatera Utara dan Bali, dengan total 95 informan. Analisis tematik menggunakan perangkat NVivo, dengan kerangka Malcolm Baldrige dan model implementasi Van Meter-Van Horn, meliputi ukuran dan tujuan kebijakan, sumber daya, kepemimpinan, perencanaan strategis, fokus tenaga kerja, fokus operasi, fokus pelanggan, pengukuran, analisis, dan manajemen pengetahuan, komunikasi antar organisasi, serta peran akreditasi. Hasil kuantitatif menunjukkan bahwa pelaporan insiden keselamatan pasien berhubungan signifikan dengan lokasi (Jawa-Bali), status akreditasi, jumlah tempat tidur (> 200), kelas rumah sakit (A dan B), evaluasi pelayanan, audit internal, serta keaktifan komite keselamatan pasien dan pengendalian infeksi. Hasil kualitatif menunjukkan bahwa implementasi kebijakan keselamatan pasien sudah berjalan, namun bervariasi tergantung kepemilikan dan ketersediaan sumber daya. Semua dimensi yang diteliti berpotensi menjadi faktor pendukung maupun penghambat tergantung pengelolaannya. Kepemimpinan yang kuat, fasilitas yang memadai, serta budaya keselamatan yang ditanamkan secara konsisten memperkuat implementasi, sedangkan lemahnya komitmen dan keterbatasan dana menjadi kendala. Hambatan juga muncul dalam pelaporan insiden, baik dari sisi organisasi maupun individu. Penelitian ini menghasilkan model konseptual strategi peningkatan keselamatan pasien yang mencakup integrasi keselamatan pasien dalam perencanaan strategis, penguatan kepemimpinan, peningkatan kapasitas staf, alokasi anggaran memadai, monitoring dan evaluasi berkelanjutan, serta pelibatan pasien. Model ini diharapkan dapat mendorong peningkatan keselamatan pasien secara menyeluruh dan berkelanjutan di rumah sakit.


 

Patient safety is a mandatory obligation for hospitals and has been an integral part of hospital accreditation since 2008. However, various patient safety issues are still frequently found, making the sustainability of improvements a major challenge. This study aims to formulate a conceptual model of patient safety improvement strategies. A mixed-methods approach with a convergent parallel design was employed. Quantitative data were obtained from the 2019 Rifaskes (523 hospitals) and accreditation records (917 hospitals), and analyzed using chi-square tests, logistic regression, and path analysis. Qualitative data were collected through in-depth interviews and document reviews from six hospitals, provincial health offices, and the Indonesian Hospital Association (PERSI) in North Sumatra and Bali Provinces, involving a total of 95 informants. Thematic analysis was conducted using NVivo software, guided by the Malcolm Baldrige framework and the Van Meter–Van Horn policy implementation model. Quantitative findings showed that the reporting of patient safety incidents was significantly associated with location (Java–Bali), accreditation status, bed capacity (>200 beds), hospital class (A and B), presence of service evaluations, internal audits, and the activity of patient safety and infection control committees. Qualitative results indicated that while policy implementation was underway, it varied depending on hospital ownership and available resources. All dimensions could act as either enablers or barriers depending on how they were managed. Strong leadership and adequate facilities enhanced implementation, while weak commitment and limited funding were key constraints. Incident reporting also faced challenges at both organizational and individual levels. This study produced a conceptual model for improving patient safety through the integration of safety into strategic planning, strengthened leadership, staff capacity building, sufficient budget allocation, continuous monitoring and evaluation, and enhanced patient engagement. The model is expected to support comprehensive and sustainable patient safety improvements in hospitals

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D-580
Depok : FKM-UI, 2025
S3 - Disertasi   Pusat Informasi Kesehatan Masyarakat
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Atik Nurwahyuni; Promotor: Amal Chalik Sjaaf; Kopromotor: Purnawan Junadi, Budi Hidayat, Penguji: Hasbullah Thabrany, Akmah Taher, Trihono, Soewarta Kosen, Mardiati Nadjib, John C. Langbrunner
D-354
Depok : FKM-UI, 2016
S3 - Disertasi   Pusat Informasi Kesehatan Masyarakat
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Chreisye Kardinalia Fransisca Mandagi; Promotor: Dumilah Ayuningtyas; Kopromotor: Adang Bachtiar, Puput Oktamianti; Penguji: Rita Damayanti, Wachyu Sulistiadi, Maxi Rein Rondonuwu, Harimat Hendarwan, Fajar Arianti
Abstrak:
Rendahnya cakupan imunisasi dasar lengkap (IDL) di wilayah perbatasan berpulau, khususnya Kabupaten Kepulauan Sangihe dan Talaud, mencerminkan tantangan geografis, logistik, sosial-budaya, serta ketidakstabilan tata kelola yang tidak terakomodasi oleh kebijakan nasional yang bersifat seragam. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengembangkan model kebijakan adaptif IDL berbasis konteks kepulauan untuk memperkuat respons sistem imunisasi daerah. Desain penelitian menggunakan mixed-method sequential explanatory, diawali survei kuantitatif terhadap 101 ibu balita untuk menguji hubungan determinan geografis, akses layanan, pengetahuan, sikap, dan persepsi kebijakan terhadap status IDL. Tahap kualitatif melibatkan 32 informan kunci (pemerintah daerah, puskesmas, tokoh adat/agama, kader, dan ibu balita) melalui wawancara mendalam untuk mengeksplorasi faktor-faktor struktural, sosial budaya, serta dinamika tata kelola. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa tidak adanya signifikansi statistik pada beberapa variabel utama menandakan dominasi hambatan struktural, khususnya ketidakpastian geografis, logistik rantai dingin, dan koordinasi lintas sektor. Analisis tematik mempertegas bahwa kebijakan nasional belum adaptif terhadap arsitektur archipelagic governance. Penelitian ini menghasilkan Model Kebijakan Adaptif KAIL–KAIT–POLA 2.0, yang menekankan fleksibilitas operasional, komunikasi lintas-aktor, dan tata kelola kolaboratif untuk meningkatkan stabilitas cakupan IDL. Rekomendasi mencakup penyusunan SOP adaptif kepulauan, penguatan transportasi vaksin, integrasi tokoh adat, dan perluasan ruang keputusan daerah.

Coverage of complete basic immunization (CBI) in Indonesia’s archipelagic border regions remains persistently low, particularly in the Sangihe and Talaud Islands, where geographical fragmentation, logistical uncertainty, and socio-cultural dynamics hinder effective policy implementation. This study aims to develop an adaptive CBI policy model tailored to archipelagic border contexts. A mixed-method sequential explanatory design was employed, beginning with a quantitative survey of 101 mothers of under five children to examine associations between geographic access, service availability, knowledge, attitudes, and policy perception with CBI status. The qualitative phase involved 32 key informants (district officials, health managers, puskesmas staff, community and religious leaders, and mothers) through in-depth interviews to explore structural barriers, cultural determinants, and governance dynamics. Quantitative results revealed limited statistical significance across several determinants, indicating predominant structural constraints, including unstable maritime transport, cold-chain vulnerabilities, and rigid top-down policy mechanisms. The qualitative synthesis demonstrated misalignment between national immunization policy and the realities of archipelagic governance, where uncertainty is systemic and requires situational adaptation. The study formulates the KAIL–KAIT–POLA 2.0 Adaptive Policy Model, emphasizing flexible operational pathways, strengthened cross-actor communication, and collaborative governance to stabilize CBI coverage. Recommendations include developing adaptive SOPs for island settings, improving vaccine logistics, formalizing engagement of local leaders, and expanding local decision space. Keywords: complete basic immunization; adaptive policy; archipelagic governance; border island
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D-614
Depok : FKM-UI, 2026
S3 - Disertasi   Pusat Informasi Kesehatan Masyarakat
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Bidayatul Tsalitsatul Sua’idah; Pembimbing: Mardiati Nadjib; Penguji: Vetty Yulianty Permanasari, Kurnia Sari, Youth Savithri, Dian Triana Sinulingga
Abstrak:

Di Indonesia kanker payudara merupakan kanker tertinggi yang banyak datang pada stadium lanjut sehingga berdampak terhadap mortalitas dan tingginya pembiayaan. Mammografi merupakan alat skrining dan diagnosis yang sudah terbukti efektifitasnya menghasilkan “down staging” pada negara maju, Indonesia sebagai negara berkembang belum menjadikan skrining mammografi sebagai program nasional. Dilakukan studi parsial evaluasi ekonomi biaya dan luaran dengan membandingkan mammografi untuk skrining berbasis populasi terhadap oportunistik skrining di RS. Dilakukan uji coba skrining berbasis populasi terhadap 683 wanita dengan menggunakan mobil mammografi hingga didapatkan case detected serta diambil data retrospektif pasien deteksi dini dengan mammografi hingga penegakan diagnosis di RS dalam periode satu tahun. Dilakukan analisis biaya berdasarkan perspektif program dengan analisis luaran case detected. Didapatkan unit cost pemeriksaan skrining adalah Rp871,045. dengan case detected 0,4% dan cost per case detected Rp Rp290,348,509. Pada deteksi dini di RS didapakan unit cost Rp1,137,881 dan 3% kasus positif kanker. Terhadap skrining berbasis populasi, untuk mendapatkan satu kasus positif kanker diperlukan biaya sebesar Rp 262.342.333. Dengan sumber daya yang dimiliki perlu dilakukan inovasi dalam deteksi dini mammografi melalui penguatan pelaksanaan skrining CBE sebagai program nasional didukung pendekatan akses melalui diagnosis dini dengan mobil mammografi terutama di daerah rentan sehingga dihasilkan diagnosis secara cepat dan tepat dan biaya yang murah. Diperlukan peran pemerintah melalui pembiayaan yang berkelanjutan terhadap deteksi dini mammografi untuk dapat menurunkan angka mortalitas dan pembiyaan dalam pengobatan kanker. Kata kunci: Kanker payudara, mammografi, cost and outcome.


 

Breast cancer is the highest cancer in Indonesia that come at late stage so have impact on mortality and high funding. Mammography is a screening and diagnosis that has proven its effectiveness in producing "down staging" in developed countries, Indonesia as a developing country has not made mammography screening a national program. A partial study of economic evaluation of costs and outcomes was conducted by comparing mammography for population-based screening to opportunistic screening in hospitals. A population-based screening was conducted on 683 women using a mobile mammography until a case was detected and retrospective data taken from early detection patients with mammography to diagnose the hospital in a period of one year. A cost analysis is carried out based on the program perspective with a case detected output analysis. The unit cost of screening is Rp.871,045. with case detected 0.4% and cost per case detected Rp.290,348,509. At early detection in the hospital unit unit costs are obtained Rp1,137,881 and 3% of positive cases of cancer. For population-based screening, to get one positive case of cancer costs Rp 262,342,333. With the available resources, innovation in the early detection of mammography needs to be done through strengthening the implementation of CBE screening as a national program supported by an access approach through early diagnosis by mammography cars, especially in vulnerable areas so that diagnosis is produced quickly and accurately and at a low cost. The role of government is needed through ongoing financing of early detection of mammography to be able to reduce mortality and financing in the treatment of cancer. Keywords: Breast cancer, mammography, cost and outcome

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T-7429
Depok : FKM-UI, 2019
S2 - Tesis   Pusat Informasi Kesehatan Masyarakat
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Mugi Wahidin; Promotor: Anhari Achadi; Kopromotro: Besral, Soewarta Kosen; Penguji: Atik Nurwahyuni, Mardiati Nadjib, Sudarto Ronoatmodjo, Ekowati Rahajeng; Masdalina Pane
Abstrak:
Latar belakang: Diabetes Melitus (DM) menjadi salah satu masalah kesehatan masyarakat terbesar di dunia dan di Indonesia yang menjadi target pengendalian secara global dan nasional. Penelitian tentang proyeksi beban DM dengan memasukkan pengaruh faktor risiko dan program pencegahan dan pengendalian DM di Indonesia sangat terbatas. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk membuat model proyeksi beban penyakit Diabetes Melitus di Indonesia berdasarkan faktor risiko dan program pencegahan dan pengendalian DM. Metode: Penelitian ini merupakan penelitian kuantitatif non-experiment menggunakan desain cross sectional study melalui pembuatan model regresi linier ganda dan system dynamics. Model proyeksi prevalens baseline dibuat berdasarkan faktor risiko, program pencegahan dan pengendalian DM. Proyeksi sampai 2045 melibatkan dinamisasi faktor risiko dan program DM, proyeksi penduduk, case fatality rate DM, unit cost DM, standar tarif pemeriksaan gula darah, dan inflasi kesehatan. Faktor risiko termasuk overweight, obesitas sentral, obesitas, konsumsi makanan manis, konsumsi minuman manis, konsumsi makanan berlemak, kurang konsumsi buah dan sayur, kurang aktivitas fisik, hipertensi, dan merokok. Program DM meliputi rasio Posbindu PTM, Desa Ber Posbindu PTM, Pemeriksaan di Posbindu PTM, Puskesmas dengan Pelayanan Terpadu PTM, pemeriksaan rutin gula darah, standar pelayanan minimal (SPM) pelayanan kesehatan DM, dan SPM skrining usia produktif. Model dibuat berdasarkan data dari 205 kabupaten/kota di 33 provinsi di Indonesia. Proyeksi dibuat secara nasional, provinsi, dan kabupaten/kota berupa prevalens, kematian, biaya langsung, dan jumlah dan biaya skrining gula darah. Penelitian ini menggunakan data sekunder dari Riset Kesehatan Dasar (Riskesdas) 2007-2018, BPJS Kesehatan 2016-2020, program P2PTM 2016-2020, dan Pusdatin Kemkes 2019-2021. Unit analisis adalah kabupaten/kota. Hasil: Model proyeksi DM menggunakan regresi linier ganda dengan formula prevalensi DM = -2,212 + 0.216 prevalens overweight +0,017 prevalens obesitas + 0,112 prevalens obesitas sentral +0,019 prevalens konsumsi makanan berlemak – 0,001 Persentase Desa Ber-Posbindu PTM + 0,003 Persentasi Pandu PTM + 1,510 prevalensi rutin diperiksa gula darah – 0.012 cakupan SPM yankes DM + 0,008 cakupan SPM skrining usia produktif. Prevalensi DM di Indonesia diperkirakan meningkat dari 9,19% pada 2020 (18,69 juta kasus) menjadi 16,09% pada 2045 (40,7 juta kasus), naik 75,1% selama 25 tahun, atau 3% per tahun. Prevalensi DM akan lebih rendah menjadi 15,68% atau 39,6 juta kasus (berkurang 5,54%) pada 2045 jika dilakukan intervensi peningkatan cakupan desa ber-posbindu dan SPM yankes DM menjadi 100%, dan menjadi 9,22% atau 23,2 juta kasus (berkurang 42,69%) jika intervensi program tersebut ditambahkan dengan pencegahan laju faktor risiko (overweight, obesitas, obesitas sentral dan konsumsi makanan berlemak). Di tingkat provinsi dan kabupaten/kota, prevalensi dan jumlah kasus meningkat dan sangat bervariasi. Proyeksi jumlah kematian akibat DM di Indonesia meningkat dari 433.752 pada 2020 menjadi 944.468 pada 2045, naik 117% selama 25 tahun atau 4,7% per tahun. Kematian akibat strok pada DM meningkat dari 52,397 pada 2020 menjadi 114,092 pada 2045. Kematian akibat IHD pada DM meningkat dari 35.351 pada 2020 menjadi 76.974 pada 2045. Sedangkan kematian akibat penyakit ginjal kronik pada DM meningkat dari 29.061 pada 2020 menjadi 63.279 pada 2045. Jumlah kematian pada 2045 lebih rendah menjadi 919.206 jika dilakukan intervensi program dan menjadi 537.190 jika dilakukan intervensi program dan menahan laju faktor risiko. Jumlah kematian akibat DM dan komplikasinya di provinsi dan kabupaten/kota meningkat dan sangat bervariasi. Biaya langsung (direct cost) DM meningkat dari Rp 37,36 triliun pada 2020 menjadi Rp 81,38 triliun pada 2045, meningkat 117,76% selama 25 tahun atau 4,71% per tahun. Jika dilakukan intervensi peningkatan program maka dapat diturunkan menjadi Rp 79,31 triliun (berkurang 2,54%) dan menjadi Rp 46,53 triliun (berkurang 42,82%) jika intervensi ditambah menahan laju faktor risiko. Di tingkat provinsi dan kabupaten/kota, biaya langsung DM mengalami kenaikan dan bervariasi antara daerah. Jumlah penduduk berusia 15-39 tahun dengan obesitas dan usia 40 tahun ke atas yang perlu diskrining gula darah di Indonesia pada 2020 diperkirakan 116.387.801 menjadi 171.913.086 orang pada 2045, meningkat 47,8% selama 25 tahun atau 1,9% per tahun. Biaya skrining Rp 2,39 trilliun pada 2020 meningkat menjadi Rp 3,53 trilliun pada 2045. Di provinsi dan kabupaten/kota, jumlah dan biaya skrining meningkat dan bervariasi. Proyeksi DM di Indonesia dan aplikasi perhitungan proyeksi dapat dilihat di www.diabetes-ina.com. Hasil proyeksi sudah dinyatakan sudah baik setelah dibahas dengan para ahli dan mempunyai Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) sebesar 13% (baik) untuk proyeksi provinsi dan nasional serta 22% (layak) untuk proyeksi kabupaten/kota. Hasil penelitian ini dapat digunakan untuk bahan perencanaan SDM, skrining, dan biaya pengobatan DM di Indonesia baik tingkat pusat, provinsi, maupun kabupaten/kota.

Background: Diabetes Mellitus (DM) is one of the biggest public health problems in the world and in Indonesia which is targeted for control globally and nationally. Research on DM burden projection by including the influence of risk factors and DM prevention and control programs in Indonesia is very limited. The purpose of this study is to make a projection model of the burden of Diabetes Mellitus in Indonesia based on risk factors and DM prevention and control programs. Method: The study was a quantitative non-experiment study using cross sectional study design through the creation of multiple linear regression models and system dynamics. The baseline prevalence projection model is based on risk factors, DM prevention and control programs. Projections until 2045 involved the dynamization of risk factors and DM programs, population projections, DM case fatality rate, DM unit costs, tariffs standard of blood glucose screening, and health inflation. Risk factors included overweight, central obesity, obesity, consumption of sugary foods, consumption of sugary drinks, consumption of fatty foods, lack consumption of fruits and vegetables, lack of physical activity, hypertension, and smoking. The DM program included the ratio of NCD Post (Posbindu), percentage of Village had Posbindu, Examination at Posbindu, Puskesmas with Integrated NCD Services (Pandu), routine blood glucose checks, minimum service standards (SPM) of DM health services, and SPM of productive age screening. The model was created based on data from 205 districts/cities in 33 provinces in Indonesia. Projections was made nationally, provincially, and districts in terms of prevalence, mortality, direct costs, and the number and cost of blood glucose screening. This study used secondary data from Basic Health Research (Riskesdas) 2007-2018, BPJS Kesehatan 2016-2020, NCD programs 2016-2020, and Pusdatin Ministry of Health 2019-2021. The analysis unit is the district/city. Results: DM projection model using multiple linear regression with DM prevalence formula = -2.212 + 0.216 overweight prevalence + 0.017 obesity prevalence + 0.112 central obesity prevalence + 0.019 prevalence of fatty food consumption – 0.001 percentage of villages with Posbindu + 0.003 NCD integrated services percentage + 1.510 prevalence of routine blood glucose checks – 0.012 SPM coverage of DM services + 0.008 SPM of productive age screening coverage. The prevalence of DM in Indonesia is estimated to increase from 9.19% in 2020 (18.69 million cases) to 16.09% in 2045 (40.7 million cases), increase 75.1% over 25 years, or 3% per year. The prevalence of DM will be lower to 15.68% or 39.6 million cases (reduced by 5.54%) in 2045 if interventions are carried out to increase the coverage of Posbindu villages and SPM DM services to 100%, and to 9.22% or 23.2 million cases (reduced by 42.69%) if the program interventions are added with prevention of risk factor rates (overweight, obesity, central obesity and consumption of fatty foods). At the provincial and district/city levels, the prevalence and number of cases are increasing and vary greatly. The projected number of deaths due to DM in Indonesia increases from 433,752 in 2020 to 944,468 in 2045, increase 117% over 25 years or 4.7% per year. Deaths due to stroke among DM increases from 52,397 in 2020 to 114,092 in 2045. Deaths from IHD among DM increases from 35,351 in 2020 to 76,974 in 2045. Meanwhile, deaths from chronic kidney disease among DM increases from 29,061 in 2020 to 63,279 in 2045. The number of deaths in 2045 could be lower to 919,206 if program interventions are carried out and to 537,190 if program interventions are carried out and halt the rate of risk factors. The number of deaths due to DM and its complications in provinces and districts / cities is increasing and varies greatly. DM direct costs increased from Rp 37.36 trillion in 2020 to Rp 81.38 trillion in 2045, an increase of 117.76% over 25 years or 4.71% per year. If the program improvement intervention is carried out, it can be reduced to Rp 79.31 trillion (reduced by 2.54%) and to Rp 46.53 trillion (reduced by 42.82%) if the intervention is added to halt the rate of risk factors. At the provincial and district/city levels, DM direct costs have increased and vary between regions. The number of people aged 15-39 years with obesity and aged 40 years and above who need to be screened for blood glucose in Indonesia in 2020 is estimated at 116,387,801 to 171,913,086 people in 2045, an increase of 47.8% over 25 years or 1.9% per year. Screening costs of Rp 2.39 trillion in 2020 will increase to Rp 3.53 trillion in 2045. In provinces and districts, the number and cost of screening are increasing and varying. DM projections in Indonesia and projection calculation applications can be seen at www.diabetes-ina.com. The projection results have been declared good after discussion with experts and have an Absolute Mean Percentage Error (MAPE) of 13% (good) for provincial and national projections and 22% (feasible) for district/city projections. The results of this study can be used for human resource planning, screening, and DM treatment costs in Indonesia at the central, provincial, and district / city levels.
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D-478
Depok : FKM-UI, 2023
S3 - Disertasi   Pusat Informasi Kesehatan Masyarakat
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Dewita Restati; Pembimbing: Amal Chalik Syaaf, Purnawan Junadi, Laksono Trisnantoro; Penguji: Hasbullah Thabrany, Adang Bachtiar, Hendrik M. Taurany, Agus Suwandono, Suprijanto Rijadi
D-109
Depok : FKM-UI, 2005
S3 - Disertasi   Pusat Informasi Kesehatan Masyarakat
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Bob Andinata; Promotor: Adang Bachtiar; Kopromotor: Besral, Mondastri Korib Sudaryo; Penguji: Evi Martha, Rizanda Machmud, Eva Susanti, Denni Joko Purwanto, Emma Rachmawati, Mahlil Ruby
Abstrak:

ABSTRAK
Latar Belakang: Kanker payudara merupakan jenis kanker dengan insidensi tertinggi di Indonesia, dengan sebagian besar pasien terdiagnosis pada stadium lanjut salah satunya karena keterlambatan diagnosis di fasilitas kesehatan primer. Rendahnya kemampuan dokter umum dalam menegakkan diagnosis klinis kanker payudara serta alur rujukan yang panjang juga berkontribusi memperberat keterlambatan tersebut. Tujuan: Menghasilkan model prediksi diagnosis klinis kanker payudara di pelayanan kesehatan primer menggunakan skor malignansi “Probability of Breast Cancer (BOBAN)” Metode: Studi ini menggunakan mixed method, dengan pendekatan desain explanatory sequential, penelitian kuantitatif menggunakan desain potong lintang dilanjutkan penelitian kualitatif dengan desain studi kasus. Penelitian ini melibatkan 1.169 wanita usia ≥30 tahun yang melakukan deteksi dini di RS Kanker Dharmais (2020–2022). Variabel prediktor dianalisis dengan uji multivariat regresi logistik untuk penyusunan model skoring. Tahap kedua berupa uji akurasi (sensitivitas-spesifisitas) dan nilai probabilitas prediksi. Tahap ketiga berupa uji kualitatif melalui diskusi kelompok terfokus (FGD) dengan dokter umum di puskesmas. Hasil: Model prediksi terdiri dari tujuh variabel terpilih, yaitu usia, riwayat keluarga tingkat I, riwayat melahirkan, riwayat menyusui, benjolan payudara, kelenjar getah bening aksila, dan gejala lanjut kanker. Model ini memiliki nilai kalibrasi yang baik (p-value 0.826) dan nilai AUC pada ROC sebesar 0,920 (CI 95% 0,892 - 0,947; p-value 0,00) menunjukkan diskriminasi yang sangat baik. Total skor antara 0–177, dengan titik potong optimal pada skor 69 (sensitivitas 86,7%, spesifisitas 82,9%, dan nilai probabilitas 10,45%). Skor rendah (0-68) didiagnosis bukan kanker payudara dan skor tinggi (69-177) didiagnosis curiga kanker payudara. Evaluasi kualitatif menunjukkan bahwa skor malignansi BOBAN dapat diaplikasikan oleh dokter umum di fasilitas kesehatan pelayanan primer. Kesimpulan: Skor malignansi ini dapat memprediksi diagnosis klinis dan menghitung nilai probabilitas kanker payudara. Skor malignansi BOBAN direkomendasikan untuk digunakan sebagai instrumen deteksi dini kanker payudara di faskes primer dan dapat menjadi solusi bagi dokter umum untuk mempemudah skrining rujukan tatalaksana kanker payudara di Indonesia.


ABSTRACT
Background: Breast cancer is the most prevalent type of cancer in Indonesia, with the majority of patients diagnosed at an advanced stage, partly due to delayed diagnosis in primary healthcare settings. Limited diagnostic capabilities among general practitioners and lengthy referral processes contribute significantly to these delays. Objective: To develop a clinical prediction model for breast cancer diagnosis in primary healthcare using the "Probability of Breast Cancer (BOBAN)" malignancy score. Methods: This study employed a mixed-method approach, consisting of a quantitative cross-sectional study followed by a qualitative explanatory sequential design. A total of 1,169 women aged ≥30 years who underwent early detection at Dharmais Cancer Hospital (2020–2022) were included. Predictor variables were analyzed using multivariate logistic regression to construct the scoring model. The second phase involved evaluating the model’s diagnostic accuracy (sensitivity-specificity) and predictive probability values. The third phase included qualitative assessment through focus group discussions (FGDs) with general practitioners at community health centers (puskesmas). Results: The prediction model comprised seven selected variables: age, first-degree family history of breast cancer, childbirth history, breastfeeding history, presence of a breast lump, axillary lymph nodes, and advanced cancer symptoms. The model demonstrated good calibration (p-value = 0.826) and excellent discrimination with an AUC of 0.920 (95% CI: 0.892–0.947; p-value < 0.001). The total score ranged from 0–177, with an optimal cutoff score of 69 (sensitivity 86.7%, specificity 82.9%, predictive probability 10.45%). A low score (0–68) indicated a non-breast cancer diagnosis, while a high score (69–177) indicated suspected breast cancer. Qualitative evaluation indicated that the BOBAN malignancy score is feasible for implementation by general practitioners in primary care settings. Conclusion: The malignancy score is capable of predicting clinical diagnosis and estimating the probability of breast cancer. The BOBAN score is recommended as a screening tool for early detection in primary healthcare facilities and offers a practical solution for general practitioners to facilitate breast cancer management referrals in Indonesia.

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D-598
Depok : FKM-UI, 2025
S3 - Disertasi   Pusat Informasi Kesehatan Masyarakat
:: Pengguna : Pusat Informasi Kesehatan Masyarakat
Library Automation and Digital Archive