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Background. Chemotherapy is a therapeutic modality for elderly with cancer which can pose elderly, especially frail patients, to fatal side effect. To date, there is no prediction model incorporating frailty in clincal practice. This study aims to develop prediction model which includes frailty state evaluation in predicting severe chemotoxicity in elderly. Methods. A retrospective cohort study using secondary data of elderly underwent chemotherapy during 2019-2021 was conducted in Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital. Data of determinants ( sex, age, polypharmacy, frailty status, nutritional status, depression, cognitive status, cancer type, polychemotherapy, and functional status) and the incidence severe chemotherapy side effect according to grade 3-5 CTCAE were collected. Data was analyzed to develop prediction model with Cox regression using SPSS Results. Of 193 subjects, most of them are male, with median age of 65.6 (IQR 60-82) years old. Severe chemotoxicity was found in 36% of the subjects. Prediction model consists of polypharmacy, number of chemotherapy drugs, cancer type and frailty status was developed. The model has AUC of 0.79 (95% CI 0.70-0.88), p value 0,01 Conclusion. A prognostic Model consists of polypharmacy, number of chemotherapy drugs, cancer type and frailty status can predict incidence of severe chemotoxicity in elderly with AUC 0.79 (95%CI 0.70-0.88)
Heart failure is a clinical syndrome that occurs when the heart fails to meet the body’s demand for oxygen and nutrients. The prevalence and mortality rate of heart failure in Indonesia are relatively high compared to other Southeast Asian countries. The occurrence of heart failure in young adults increases the risk of premature death, recurrent rehospitalization, reduced quality of life, and a greater burden on the healthcare system. Several factors such as obesity, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), hypertension, smoking, dyslipidemia, family history of premature coronary artery disease (PCAD), and sex have been identified as being associated with heart failure. Developing a predictive model to identify the most influential risk factors for heart failure in young adults is crucial for preventive strategies and early interventions. This study employed a fixed retrospective cohort design involving patients aged 18–54 years who visited the cardiology outpatient clinic or were hospitalized at four tertiary hospitals in Indonesia (National Cardiovascular Center Harapan Kita, Jakarta; Hasan Sadikin Hospital, Bandung; Sebelas Maret University Hospital, Solo; and Adam Malik Hospital, Medan) in 2021. Patients without an initial diagnosis of heart failure were included, and their risk factors were recorded according to the study variables. The patients were followed monthly from 2021 until the end of observation in 2024 to determine whether they developed heart failure. Descriptive, bivariate, and multivariable analyses were conducted using the Poisson Generalized Linear Model (GLM) to estimate coefficients, incidence rate ratios (IRR) with 95% confidence intervals, and to construct the most accurate predictive model. Based on the model, a scoring system and probability value for the occurrence of heart failure were developed. A total of 321 participants met the inclusion and exclusion criteria, with a median age of 51 years (P25–P75: 46–52 years). After four years of observation, the cumulative probability of developing heart failure was 0.713 (95% CI: 0.661–0.760). The analysis identified three significant predictors for heart failure in young adults: obesity (IRR 1.87; 95% CI 1.31–2.68), dyslipidemia (IRR 2.58; 95% CI 1.87–3.56), and T2DM (IRR 2.79; 95% CI 2.01–3.87). The IDD Score (Body Mass Index–Dyslipidemia–Diabetes) was developed as a predictive scoring system for heart failure in young adults, with a total score of 13 corresponding to a 76.8% probability. Obesity, dyslipidemia, and T2DM were found to be significant risk factors for heart failure in young adults. The proposed IDD Score demonstrated good sensitivity and specificity in predicting the occurrence of heart failure within this population.