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Treatment default is a serious problem in tuberculosis control because itimplies resistance, increased relaps, failure, persistence of infectious source andfurther increased burden and transmission tuberculosis. Scoring system of defaultrisk factors to predict survival patients have been not studied yet, particularly inIndonesia. The aim of this study to determine the predictors scouring system ofsurvival defaulting treatment for tuberculosis patients.This retrospective cohort study was conducted from April to Mei 2013 atpoli DOTS RSUP Persahabatan. were identified from TB 01 forms and medicalrecords. Patients defaulting from treatment were considered as event and thosecure and completing treatment as censors. 370 tuberculosis patients wereincluded, 70 events and 300 censors. Overall patients survival rate was 81%.Survival defaulting associated significanly to sex, smear diagnosis and taking drugaccording to guideline with p value are 0,043, 0,008, 0,0001 respectively, found tobe risk factors for survival defaulting HR 1,7 (95%CI:1,02-2,99), HR 1,9;(95%CI:1,18-3.05), dan HR 32,7 (95%CI:14,78-72,18) respectively. IncreasingHR of taking drug according to guideline followed with increased alteration oftime observation. Scoring results are obtained predicting survival patientsdefaulting by 92%, and a cut-off point for the scoring model is ≥21.Communication, information and education must be increased das well asincreased internal and external hospital linkage to decrease default outcome.Keywords: tuberculosis, default, survival, scouring
Heart failure is a clinical syndrome that occurs when the heart fails to meet the body’s demand for oxygen and nutrients. The prevalence and mortality rate of heart failure in Indonesia are relatively high compared to other Southeast Asian countries. The occurrence of heart failure in young adults increases the risk of premature death, recurrent rehospitalization, reduced quality of life, and a greater burden on the healthcare system. Several factors such as obesity, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), hypertension, smoking, dyslipidemia, family history of premature coronary artery disease (PCAD), and sex have been identified as being associated with heart failure. Developing a predictive model to identify the most influential risk factors for heart failure in young adults is crucial for preventive strategies and early interventions. This study employed a fixed retrospective cohort design involving patients aged 18–54 years who visited the cardiology outpatient clinic or were hospitalized at four tertiary hospitals in Indonesia (National Cardiovascular Center Harapan Kita, Jakarta; Hasan Sadikin Hospital, Bandung; Sebelas Maret University Hospital, Solo; and Adam Malik Hospital, Medan) in 2021. Patients without an initial diagnosis of heart failure were included, and their risk factors were recorded according to the study variables. The patients were followed monthly from 2021 until the end of observation in 2024 to determine whether they developed heart failure. Descriptive, bivariate, and multivariable analyses were conducted using the Poisson Generalized Linear Model (GLM) to estimate coefficients, incidence rate ratios (IRR) with 95% confidence intervals, and to construct the most accurate predictive model. Based on the model, a scoring system and probability value for the occurrence of heart failure were developed. A total of 321 participants met the inclusion and exclusion criteria, with a median age of 51 years (P25–P75: 46–52 years). After four years of observation, the cumulative probability of developing heart failure was 0.713 (95% CI: 0.661–0.760). The analysis identified three significant predictors for heart failure in young adults: obesity (IRR 1.87; 95% CI 1.31–2.68), dyslipidemia (IRR 2.58; 95% CI 1.87–3.56), and T2DM (IRR 2.79; 95% CI 2.01–3.87). The IDD Score (Body Mass Index–Dyslipidemia–Diabetes) was developed as a predictive scoring system for heart failure in young adults, with a total score of 13 corresponding to a 76.8% probability. Obesity, dyslipidemia, and T2DM were found to be significant risk factors for heart failure in young adults. The proposed IDD Score demonstrated good sensitivity and specificity in predicting the occurrence of heart failure within this population.
