Pendahuluan : Serologi positif IgG mengindikasikan infeksi kronis dari Toxoplasma gondii. Perilaku seksual dianggap sebagai faktor risiko infeksi Toxoplasma gondii, karena adanya temuan keberadaan parasit ini pada cairan semen dan ejakulasi. Hal ini menjadi landasan dalam menjelaskan hubungan infeksi T. gondii dengan hubungan seks oral. Selain itu, infeksi parasit ini berhubungan dengan konsumsi bahan pangan asal hewan, khususnya daging ternak ruminansia yang dimasak dengan tidak matang. Tujuan Penelitian : Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui faktor risiko dan merancang model prediksi serologi positif IgG Toxoplasma gondii pada pasien HIV/AIDS yang menjalani terapi ARV di wilayah Jakarta, Bogor, Depok, Bekasi yang mendapatkan pendampingan dari yayasan pendamping pasien HIV/AIDS. Metode Penelitian : Desain studi penelitian menggunakan desain potong lintang. Subyek Penelitian adalah 197 pasien HIV. Status serologi IgG positif Toxoplasma gondii diukur menggunakan pemeriksaan ELISA. Hubungan seks oral, hubungan seks anal, konsumsi bahan pangan asal hewan yang dimasak tidak matang (daging ternak ruminansia, daging unggas, ikan dan udang, seafood), konsumsi sayuran mentah, pemeriksaan Toxoplasma gondii pada kucing peliharaan, keberadaan feses kucing di sekitar rumah, kebiasaan tidak mencuci tangan setelah kontak dengan tanah, dan kepemilikan tato merupakan perilaku dan kondisi lingkungan yang diduga menjadi faktor risiko serologi positif IgG Toxoplasma gondii. Hasil Penelitian: Prevalensi serologi positif IgG Toxoplasma gondii pada pasien HIV yang menjalani terapi ARV di wilayah Jakarta, Bogor, Depok, dan Bekasi yang mendapatkan pendampingan dari 4 yayasan pendamping pasien HIV/AIDS adalah 65,48%. Hubungan seks oral (aPR:1,56; β:0,446; 95%CI:1,05-2,31;p<0,026) dan konsumsi daging ternak ruminansia bakar (aPR:4,89; β:1,585; 95%CI:2,51-9,50;p<0,001) merupakan faktor risiko serologi positif IgG Toxoplasma gondii. Analisis permodelan menghasilkan model Prediksi Serologi IgG Toxoplasma gondii pada pasien HIV yang menjalani terapi ARV dan mendapatkan pendampingan dari 4 yayasan pendamping pasien HIV di wilayah Jakarta, Bogor, Depok, dan Bekasi. Status serologi tersebut dapat diukur menggunakan pengamatan hubungan seks oral dan konsumsi daging ruminansia bakar. Model ini memiliki tingkat akurasi, sensitivitas, dan spesifisitas model prediksi ini mencapai 87,31%, 97,67%, dan 67,65%. Kesimpulan : Hubungan seks oral dan konsumsi daging ruminansia bakar merupakan faktor risiko serologi positif IgG Toxoplasma gondii pada pasien HIV/AIDS. Proses penapisan (screening) untuk memperkirakan status serologi IgG Toxoplasma gondii, dapat dilakukan dengan mengukur hubungan seks oral dan konsumsi daging ruminansia bakar, bersamaan dengan pemeriksaan HIV. Rujukan pemeriksaan serologi Toxoplasma gondii direkomendasikan untuk diberikan kepada pasien HIV/AIDS yang berhubungan seks oral dan mengonsumsi daging ruminansia bakar. Keywords : Toxoplasma gondii; hiv; sexual behaviour; risk factor; prediction model

Introduction: IgG-positive serology indicates Toxoplasma gondii chronic infection. Sexual behaviour is considered a risk factor for Toxoplasma gondii infection, due to the presence of this parasite in semen and ejaculate fluids. This finding explains the relationship between T. gondii infection and oral sex. Several studies stated that parasitic infection is related to the consumption of food of animal origin, especially ruminant livestock meat that is undercooked. Research Objectives: This study aims to determine risk factors and design a positive Serology Prediction Model for IgG Toxoplasma gondii in HIV/AIDS patients undergoing ARV therapy in the Jakarta, Bogor, Depok, Bekasi areas who receive assistance from HIV/AIDS foundations. Research Method: The design of this study uses a cross-section design. The research subjects were 197 HIV patients. The Serological Status of IgG positive for Toxoplasma gondii was measured using an ELISA methods. Oral sex, anal sex, consumption of food from undercooked animals (ruminant meat, poultry, fish and shrimp, seafood), consumption of raw vegetables, health monitoring in pet cats, the presence of cat faces around the house, the habit of not washing hands after contact with the ground, and the possession of tattoos are behaviours and environmental conditions that are suspected to be risk factors for positive serology IgG Toxoplasma gondii. Results: The prevalence of IgG Toxoplasma gondii positive serology in HIV patients undergoing ARV therapy in the Jakarta, Bogor, Depok, and Bekasi areas who received assistance from 4 HIV/AIDS patient companion foundations was 65.48%. Oral sex (aPR: 1.56; β: 0.446; 95%CI: 1.05-2.31; p<0.026) and consumption of grilled ruminant livestock (aPR: 4.89; β: 1.585; 95%CI: 2.51-9.50; p<0.001) is a positive serological risk factor for IgG Toxoplasma gondii. The modelling analysis produced a Serological Prediction model of IgG Toxoplasma gondii in HIV patients undergoing ARV therapy and received assistance from 4 HIV patient assistance foundations in the Jakarta, Bogor, Depok, and Bekasi areas. The serologic status can be measured using observation of oral sex and consumption of grilled ruminant meat. This model has the level of accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of this prediction model reaching 87.31%, 97.67%, and 67.65%. Conclusion: Oral sex and consumption of grilled ruminant meat are risk factors for IgG Toxoplasma gondii positive serology in HIV/AIDS patients. The screening process to estimate the serological status of IgG Toxoplasma gondii can be done by measuring oral sex and consumption of grilled ruminant meat, along with HIV screening. Toxoplasma gondii serology test is recommended to be given to HIV/AIDS patients who have oral sex and consume grilled ruminant meat. Keywords : Toxoplasma gondii; HIV; sexual behaviour; risk factor; prediction model

Heart failure is a clinical syndrome that occurs when the heart fails to meet the body’s demand for oxygen and nutrients. The prevalence and mortality rate of heart failure in Indonesia are relatively high compared to other Southeast Asian countries. The occurrence of heart failure in young adults increases the risk of premature death, recurrent rehospitalization, reduced quality of life, and a greater burden on the healthcare system. Several factors such as obesity, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), hypertension, smoking, dyslipidemia, family history of premature coronary artery disease (PCAD), and sex have been identified as being associated with heart failure. Developing a predictive model to identify the most influential risk factors for heart failure in young adults is crucial for preventive strategies and early interventions. This study employed a fixed retrospective cohort design involving patients aged 18–54 years who visited the cardiology outpatient clinic or were hospitalized at four tertiary hospitals in Indonesia (National Cardiovascular Center Harapan Kita, Jakarta; Hasan Sadikin Hospital, Bandung; Sebelas Maret University Hospital, Solo; and Adam Malik Hospital, Medan) in 2021. Patients without an initial diagnosis of heart failure were included, and their risk factors were recorded according to the study variables. The patients were followed monthly from 2021 until the end of observation in 2024 to determine whether they developed heart failure. Descriptive, bivariate, and multivariable analyses were conducted using the Poisson Generalized Linear Model (GLM) to estimate coefficients, incidence rate ratios (IRR) with 95% confidence intervals, and to construct the most accurate predictive model. Based on the model, a scoring system and probability value for the occurrence of heart failure were developed. A total of 321 participants met the inclusion and exclusion criteria, with a median age of 51 years (P25–P75: 46–52 years). After four years of observation, the cumulative probability of developing heart failure was 0.713 (95% CI: 0.661–0.760). The analysis identified three significant predictors for heart failure in young adults: obesity (IRR 1.87; 95% CI 1.31–2.68), dyslipidemia (IRR 2.58; 95% CI 1.87–3.56), and T2DM (IRR 2.79; 95% CI 2.01–3.87). The IDD Score (Body Mass Index–Dyslipidemia–Diabetes) was developed as a predictive scoring system for heart failure in young adults, with a total score of 13 corresponding to a 76.8% probability. Obesity, dyslipidemia, and T2DM were found to be significant risk factors for heart failure in young adults. The proposed IDD Score demonstrated good sensitivity and specificity in predicting the occurrence of heart failure within this population.