Abstrak: Mendelian randomization (MR) is a method for estimating the causal relationship between an exposure and an outcome using a genetic factor as an instrumental variable (IV) for the exposure. In the traditional MR setting, data on the IV, exposure, and outcome are available for all participants. However, obtaining complete exposure data may be difficult in some settings, due to high measurement costs or lack of appropriate biospecimens. We used simulated data sets to assess statistical power and bias for MR when exposure data are available for a subset (or an independent set) of participants. We show that obtaining exposure data for a subset of participants is a cost-efficient strategy, often having negligible effects on power in comparison with a traditional complete-data analysis. The size of the subset needed to achieve maximum power depends on IV strength, and maximum power is approximately equal to the power of traditional IV estimators. Weak IVs are shown to lead to bias towards the null when the subsample is small and towards the confounded association when the subset is relatively large. Various approaches for confidence interval calculation are considered. These results have important implications for reducing the costs and increasing the feasibility of MR studies.

Abstrak: In this issue of the Journal, Nimptsch et al. (Am J Epidemiol. 2013;178(2):172-183) report significant associations between female adolescents' poultry consumption in high school and subsequent reduced risk of colorectal adenomas in adulthood. Consumption of red meat or fish was not related to risk, but replacement with poultry reduced the risk of later adenomas. Most epidemiologic studies of adult diseases lack exposure data from the distant past. By focusing on a cancer precursor lesion and using a variety of methods to assess data quality, the investigators address concerns about the quality of distant recall. These findings add to the growing evidence that links childhood and adolescent lifestyle and environmental exposures with subsequent risk of cancers arising in adulthood. Highlights of the literature on this topic and methodological challenges are summarized. Future studies would benefit from incorporating measures of lifestyle, diet, environmental exposures, and other risk factors from early in life and from validation and other data quality checks of such measurements. Sources of historical data on children's and adolescents' exposures should be sought and evaluated in conjunction with subsequent exposures in relationship to adult-onset cancers.

Abstrak: Because of difficulties in finding, recruiting, and diagnosing dementia in the oldest old (ages ≥90 years), most incidence studies include few very elderly persons, and little is known about the characteristics of those who refuse participation. In a California longitudinal study of dementia and aging (The 90+ Study, 2003-2011), we compared nonresponders with responders with regard to information collected 20 years earlier and the impression of dementia as determined during telephone recruitment. Of 1,815 eligible subjects, 1,514 (83%) joined the study, 182 refused, and 119 could not be contacted. Responders did not differ from nonresponders by sex or previously collected medical history or lifestyle behaviors. Recruiters' impressions of dementia were similar in responders and nonresponders who refused (35% and 38%), and among responders, impressions of dementia showed high positive predictive value (95%) but low sensitivity (51%) for a diagnosis of dementia made during the study. Although epidemiologic studies among the very old have the potential for significant nonresponse bias due to a high proportion of frail, ill, and cognitively impaired persons, strategies can improve response rates to over 80%. Classifying nonresponders on cognitive ability at recruitment, though crude, will give some idea of the selective bias in dementia prevalence and incidence estimates introduced by nonresponse due to cognitive status.

Abstrak: We employed the parametric G formula to analyze lung cancer mortality in a cohort of textile manufacturing workers who were occupationally exposed to asbestos in South Carolina. A total of 3,002 adults with a median age of 24 years at enrollment (58% male, 81% Caucasian) were followed for 117,471 person-years between 1940 and 2001, and 195 lung cancer deaths were observed. Chrysotile asbestos exposure was measured in fiber-years per milliliter of air, and annual occupational exposures were estimated on the basis of detailed work histories. Sixteen percent of person-years involved exposure to asbestos, with a median exposure of 3.30 fiber-years/mL among those exposed. Lung cancer mortality by age 90 years under the observed asbestos exposure was 9.44%. In comparison with observed asbestos exposure, if the facility had operated under the current Occupational Safety and Health Administration asbestos exposure standard of < 0.1 fibers/mL, we estimate that the cohort would have experienced 24% less lung cancer mortality by age 90 years (mortality ratio = 0.76, 95% confidence interval: 0.62, 0.94). A further reduction in asbestos exposure to a standard of < 0.05 fibers/mL was estimated to have resulted in a minimal additional reduction in lung cancer mortality by age 90 years (mortality ratio = 0.75, 95% confidence interval: 0.61, 0.92).